Why Fears of an India–China–Russia Alliance Are Vastly Overstated

Geopolitical headlines often amplify worst-case scenarios. The latest panic: an alleged India–China–Russia triangle poised to threaten the West. While images of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi standing beside Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin fuel speculation, the reality is far more nuanced. India’s strategic DNA has historically leaned toward nonalignment, and New Delhi’s deep frictions with Beijing make a genuine alliance implausible. For U.S. business leaders and policymakers, the risks are real—but overstated.

The Spark: A Summit in Tianjin

India’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin last week triggered alarm across U.S. political and media circles. Photos of Modi, Xi, and Putin standing shoulder to shoulder quickly spread across networks.

• CNN commentator Van Jones called it “a dagger pointed at the heart of the West.”
• On PBS News, Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg suggested Modi may be shifting “into the China-Russia camp.”
• Former President Donald Trump amplified the imagery on Truth Social, warning, “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China.”

Such rhetoric resonates in an election season but oversimplifies reality. India’s appearance on the SCO stage reflects its pragmatic foreign policy: engage where useful, but avoid binding commitments.

The India–China Fault Line

At the heart of this debate lies a stubborn fact: India and China are not natural partners.

• Border Tensions: The two nations fought a war in 1962 and continue to face off along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which left 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers dead, underscored how volatile the relationship remains.
• Economic Competition: India views itself as a counterweight to China in Asia, competing for influence across the Indo-Pacific and vying for global manufacturing investment. Modi’s “Make in India” initiative is explicitly designed to capture supply chains leaving China.
• Strategic Alignments: India is a key member of the Quad alliance with the U.S., Japan, and Australia—an explicit counter to Beijing’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

Put simply, while Beijing may see tactical value in showcasing India at summits, New Delhi has no incentive to dilute its sovereignty or align strategically with its biggest regional adversary.

Russia’s Complicated Role

Where does Russia fit in? For decades, India has maintained strong defense ties with Moscow. Russian arms account for roughly 45% of India’s military imports, a legacy of Cold War cooperation.

Yet Russia’s deepening dependency on China since the Ukraine war has reduced its leverage. India has been careful: maintaining energy imports from Russia while quietly distancing itself from Moscow’s geopolitical orbit. New Delhi’s calculus is clear—keep the arms pipeline open but avoid strategic entanglement.

For global investors, this signals continuity. India will diversify its defense partnerships (notably with the U.S., France, and Israel) while maintaining a transactional relationship with Russia.

Trump’s Tariffs and U.S.–India Relations

The immediate catalyst for the “alliance fears” narrative is President Trump’s renewed tariff push. His administration’s proposed 25% tariffs on select Indian exports have frustrated New Delhi and sparked a downturn in bilateral relations.

Still, India’s long-term trajectory is tethered more closely to Washington than Beijing:

• Technology & Investment: The U.S. is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral goods trade exceeding $190 billion in 2024.
• Defense & Security: Joint exercises like Yudh Abhyas and defense deals worth billions highlight deepening military cooperation.
• Diaspora Influence: Over 4 million Indian-Americans create a powerful cultural and political bridge.

Even amid tariff disputes, both countries recognize their strategic alignment against China.

Why the Fears Are Overstated

For CEOs and investors assessing geopolitical risk, the notion of an India–China–Russia bloc should be weighed against structural realities:

• Enduring Rivalries: India and China are locked in a zero-sum contest for Asian leadership.
• Divergent Interests: India seeks multipolarity; China seeks hegemony. Russia seeks survival. These are not easily reconciled.
• U.S. Leverage: Despite periodic disputes, Washington remains New Delhi’s most important partner for technology, defense, and global influence.
• Public Opinion: Indian public sentiment remains broadly pro-U.S. and deeply skeptical of China, especially post-Galwan.

In short: the “alliance” may exist on paper or in photographs, but it lacks the substance of strategic trust.

Risks Executives Should Monitor

While fears may be overstated, risks remain. Business leaders and policymakers should monitor:

• Defense Procurement Shifts: If India accelerates diversification away from Russian arms, opportunities will open for Western defense contractors.
• Trade Retaliation: Tariffs could push India to seek alternative markets, affecting U.S. exporters and investors.
• Regional Flashpoints: Another India–China border clash could destabilize Asian supply chains and investor confidence.
• Energy Dependencies: India’s reliance on discounted Russian oil remains a geopolitical vulnerability.

Executive Takeaway

The idea of a cohesive India–China–Russia alliance is more fiction than fact. The SCO summit optics may alarm, but they obscure the deep rivalries and divergent interests that define the trilateral relationship.

For the U.S. and its corporate leaders, the real task lies not in fearing an unlikely alliance, but in strengthening ties with India—a nation positioned to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a natural counterweight to China.

The bigger danger isn’t India joining China—it’s the U.S. taking India for granted.

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